Brexit anxiety, stock market volatility and acts of violence are reflected in this month’s consumer sentiment readings. Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director of Fung Global Retail & Technology, weighs in on how it may affect consumer spending and the back to school shopping season.
• Prosper Consumer Confidence: In the wake of the Brexit vote and subsequent stock market drop, consumer confidence declines more than 10% from June to the current 41.1% of those surveyed feeling confident/very confident in the economy. July’s reading represents a 13 month low and falls below the average for the same period (45.0%). Confidence among small business owners fell to 50.3%, compared to 55.2% last month. “The uncertainty surrounding the potential repercussions of Brexit drove further volatility in global stock prices in late June and early July. Fung Global Retail & Technology looked at the U.K. retail sector and U.K. consumers in two briefings (Brexit: First-Take on the Impact for Retail and Brexit Briefings 2: Retail Winners and Losers) and addressed the near and intermediate term impact of Britain’s decision to leave the EU. Specifically, we expect house prices, stock prices, and interest rates to decline, while we see consumer price inflation increasing. Those most exposed to these factors are high net worth individuals (HNWI) and the middle-aged and retired consumers; younger consumers are more insulated. Trends we have witnessed in the U.K. retail landscape, specifically mass adoption of discount formats along with the structural shift to the online retail channel we believe will accelerate in the aftermath of the Brexit vote,” Deborah Weinswig commented.ABOUT: Consumer confidence is based on respondents who indicated that they are either confident or very confident in the chances of a strong economy during the next six months.
• Prosper Consumer Spending Forecast: At 78.4, the July Consumer Spending Forecast is also down from last month (83.4), but up from last year (77.6). The forecast is down for both softlines (-7%) and hardlines (-7%), but again up from last year (+2% and +3%, respectively). “Year over year lifts in the Consumer Spending Forecast for both softline and hardline categories is encouraging as we approach the back to school selling season. Fung Global Retail & Technology maintains the bulk of back to school shopping is not discretionary and as we lap 2015’s weak seasonal sales tallies, we look forward to a healthier fall in 2016, benefitting apparel, footwear and electronic categories. Similar to shopping trends we see in the UK, we look for robust sales at discounters and online,” said Weinswig.
• ABOUT: The Prosper Consumer Spending Forecast is an advanced predictive analytic derived from two established databases (the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Expenditure Survey and Prosper's Monthly Consumer Survey) and represents consumers' intended spending levels over the next 90 days in 20 retail categories. The consumer intentions data for the 20 categories is weighted by age and gender to reflect the U.S. population and then weighted to reflect the actual percentage of total retail expenditures for each of the categories.
• Prosper Impulsivity Score: At 2.81, the Prosper Impulsivity Score is relatively flat year-over-year (2.82) and down from last month (2.88).
ABOUT: The Prosper Impulsivity Score is an indicator of how much, or how little, consumers are living in the moment when it comes to their spending habits. Highly correlated with many key government data series, the Impulsivity Score is a key indicator of how consumers will be spending.
• Consumer Mood Index: At 104.6, The Consumer Mood Index is down compared to last month (106.4) and July 2015 (105.9). “Brexit anxiety, stock market volatility and acts of violence and terror are reflected in the recent drop of the Consumer Mood Index. Ideally, we want to see happy consumers as they are more likely to spend on big ticket items, though there is a school of thought that believes shopping and buying can restore a sunny disposition,” Weinswig posited.
• ABOUT: The Consumer Mood Index provides the current happiness level of U.S. Consumers. It analyzes consumer happiness across several key variables. Prosper has found that happiness highly correlates with consumer spending decisions, knowing that happier people buy houses and cars and are more likely to open their wallets.
• Prosper Auto Outlook: The automotive outlook for the next 90 days is down 13% from June 2016 and up 3% from July 2015. Chevrolet, Honda, and Ford are the top three brands being considered by people planning to buy a vehicle in the next six months.
ABOUT: The Prosper Auto Sales Outlook provides marketers with directional insight into lightweight vehicle sales both month-over-month and year-over-year. Prosper applies their proprietary algorithm to commerce data sets on lightweight vehicle sales and Prosper’s unique purchase intentions data to derive the Auto Outlook.
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Gary Drenik is CEO of Prosper Insights & Analytics, a company that prides itself on turning data into evidence-based solutions for the C-Suite.
Disclaimer: Prosper makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing PI&A statistics; or the PI&A data and estimates represent only the opinion of Prosper and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.
