There's been a lot of argument over Mason Plumlee's value to the Blazers and where his eventual ceiling will be. What I've noticed is that these two things are linked in most arguments. Either you've got folks who see a lot of potential and therefore believe that Mason will be around a while, or else they don't and he won't.

I realized that my own judgement of Mason's value is largely unrelated to his ceiling. I don't see him as our long-term solution at C. That parking space is reserved for Meyers Leonard and it's Mason's job to hold down the fort until he's ready to take over. At that point I want Mason to move back to the bench and my expectations for him will be relative to that role.

If that's the scenario, how good do you really want Mason Plumlee to be? In a sense, you don't want him to be too good. You're looking for a "goldilocks" player. Good enough to fill in as a starter, good enough to dominate weaker competition, but not good enough to bolt for a bigger role and contract elsewhere.

It wasn't that long ago that the Blazers had a guy who played Center for us on a losing, rebuilding team. A guy we thought was over-matched as a starter in the West but would look really good in a reserve position. A guy who was good offensively close to the rim, a good rebounder, but a poor defender. In other words, a guy that sounds like Mason Plumlee. His name? JJ Hickson!

Before he was a BlazersEdge punch line he was valued, even loved by fans in spite of his limitations. Most people wanted to keep him as long as he wasn't too expensive and didn't want too big of a role. He was, he did and he left. Can Mason be as good or better for us as a starter than JJ Hickson was? Will he be too good to keep as a backup?

Lets look at JJ's numbers from his 2012-2013 season with the Blazers (Per 100 possessions + advanced measures, per basketball-reference.com):

PTS  TRB  AST  STL  BLK  TOV  PF   PER  TS%  DBPM

23.0 18.7 2.0  1.1  1.2  3.3  3.6  19.7 59.1 0.0

Since these are per 100, don't let your eyes pop out at the absolute numbers, but it does remind us that JJ was very effective on offense during his tenure. He feasted on putbacks and on doubling of LA but it was an opportunity he exploited well. As a comparison, let's look at Mason's numbers from last year:

PTS  TRB  AST  STL  BLK  TOV  PF   PER  TS%  DBPM

21.3 15.2 2.2  1.9  1.9  3.1  6.1  18.0 57.0 1.4

What leaps out at me is how similar these stat lines are on a pace-adjusted basis. Overall 2012-2013 JJ Hickson was the more productive player and also fouled significantly less. Mason Plumlee still pencils out as the superior defender, though that's not saying a ton. I'll leave the connection between foul rate and defensive effort as an exercise for the reader...

It's hard to say what impact the change in role and system will have on Plumlee. Although RoLo and JJ both had breakout years after moving to the Stotts system, those results happened while playing next to Aldridge, Matthews, and Batum. I think the safe thing to say is that Plumlee will neither crater nor explode but will grow enough to fill in the larger allotment of minutes he will see playing for us. Ultimately I think that means his overall production will be similar to what Hickson did for us in 12-13.

For all his flaws, JJ Hickson was an important part of what kept the Blazers afloat that year and his energetic, above-the-rim play was a steady crowd pleaser. Mason promises to bring us a similar level of energetic, above-the-rim play. There is also the promise of a facepalm free season compared to JJ. On balance, I think that Blazer fans will love Mason and will be grateful to have him on hand for the rebuild.

The follow-up question is whether or not Mason will be happy to stick around? I think that is hard to predict. Where does Mason see himself in the NBA pecking order? Will his emotional needs and financial desires be satisfied in Portland independently of his status and minutes played? Although we can't know what he really wants, I think the team will be more motivated to pay Plumlee than they were willing to pay Hickson. A reliable system guy who produces at this level is a valuable asset and we have cap space to work with. Assuming he doesn't blow up in '15-16, there's a very good chance we end up extending him next summer and we'll be able to slide him into the reserves whenever it is most appropriate.

Personally I'm pretty happy with the Plumlee acquisition and I think based on the evidence that he has the potential to stick with this team for years to come. He'll start in the short term but if things go according to plan he'll be a high-end reserve just as the team is really starting to come into it's own. I can't imagine a 27-28 year old Mason Plumlee being the starting Center on a Finals team, but I could absolutely see him doing so as a reserve.