GENERALIZED FOREX-FORECAST FOR 03-07 AUGUST 2015

1 August 2015, 19:19
Sergey Ershov
0
223

Firstly, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

- for the EUR/USD pair our graphical analysis-based forecast of a sideways trend in the  1.0900÷1.1015 interval, with an ascent to 1.1115 in the case of the pair breaking through its resistance,  turned out to be almost perfect. If we look at the previous week’s charts we will notice both a sideways trend and a break through resistance, as well as the pair’s ascent to 1.1115, with a support level of 1.0900;

- as for EUR/USD, in the case of GBP/USD graphical analysis ended up being correct, insisting that the pair would move in an ascending corridor, which would be clearly visible on D1. This is precisely what happened: for the duration of the entire week the pair slowly crawled upwards, clinging to this corridor’s lower boundary;

- opinions regarding the future of USD/JPY were unanimous amongst both analysts and instruments of technical analysis: the pair was to continue its effort to reach the 125.00 level, which it actually attempted to do, nevertheless failing to overcome the resistance at 124.50 once again;

- it turns out that graphical analysis is indeed capable of working wonders: its predictions regarding the behavior of USD/CHF also ended up being close to perfection. We remind you that graphical analysis using D1 illustrated the following scenario: an initial descent to the support at 0.9520 (check), followed by an ascent to the assigned level of 0.9700 (check), continued by a collapse to a support level at 0.9325 (it indeed collapsed, albeit less dramatically to 0.9550).

***

The forecast for the upcoming week:

Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as forecasts that are based on the largest possible variety of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:

- Bringing together analysts’ views concerning the future of EUR/USD is a difficult task, but if we do attempt to undertake it we can say that the Pivot Point for the pair would be located at the 1.0970 level. The pair will oscillate within the interval from 1.0820 to 1.1115 about precisely that line. Indicators also suggest a neutral behavior for the pair, whilst graphical analysis remains confused. One can only hope that the start of the week will bring about greater clarity regarding the pair’s intentions;

- Onto the GBP/USD pair. 100% of analysts predict a sideways trend dominated by “bullish” tendencies, with a support level at 1.5520. 74% of indicators lean towards a rise, which is confirmed by graphical analysis. According to its predictions, a slight decrease is initially possible, after which the pair would launch itself from the support at 1.5510 and will arrive at 1.5830 before returning to the support zone. However, such a return might not occur until 10-14 August, instead of happening this week;

- On the future of the USD/JPY pair, only 11% of experts believe that the pair will finally reach 125.00, with the rest talking about a descent towards the 123.00 zone. Graphical analysis adheres to the following scenario: first a descent to 123.40, then a rise at the very least to 124.40, followed by a sharp fall to the 122.00 support level. Only the technical indicators, on both H4 and D1, are insisting that the pair's upwards trajectory will begin immediately on Monday;

- And, finally, the USD/CHF pair. Here experts’ predictions are clearly influenced by the upcoming warm holiday season: their forecasts are spread out like molten ice cream on scorching asphalt. Fortunately, indicators remain unaffected by high temperatures and as a result provide us with a clear and nearly unanimous (78%) forecast of a rise into the 0.9730÷0.9750 zone. The support level will be at 0.9510.

 

Roman Butko, NordFX & Sergey Ershov

Share it with friends: