Oil palm and Green Economy in Indonesia: lessons from East Kalimantan
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This presentation by CIFOR scientist Krystof Obidzinski was given at LEDs Asia Forum, Jogjakarta, 10-13 November 2014.
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Oil palm and Green Economy in Indonesia: lessons from East Kalimantan
- 1. Oil palm and Green Economy in Indonesia: lessons from East Kalimantan LEDs Asia Forum, Jogjakarta, 10-13 November 2014 Krystof Obidzinski, CIFOR
- 2. 1. Background: Indonesia CO2 emissions 1.2 Gt
- 3. 2. GHG emissions in East Kalimantan
- 4. 3. GHG emissions and Green Economy in E. Kalimantan BAU Scenario GE = Reduce GHG 15.7% by 2020 (RAN- GRK) Source: McKinsey Report
- 5. 4. Green Economy in East Kalimantan and GHG emissions 68 57.32 52 43.48 50 42.15 35 29.51 20 16.86 20 16.86 4 3.37 2 1.69 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2010 2020 Oil Palm Agriculture Forestry Mining Construction Petroleum dan Refining Manufacturing Services Reduce GHG from OP by 10 M tons Source: McKinsey Report
- 6. 5. Scenarios
- 7. 6. GHG implications of scenarios The total of current carbon stock is 1,811,356,370.91 Tons CO2eq
- 8. 6. GHG implications of scenarios Saved Converted Saved Converted Below ground Above ground Scenario 1 0.00 -1438015365.77 0.00 221033821.40 Scenario 2 -808750110.96 -665605791.93 87107274.05 240243665.28 Scenario 3 -1590322549.47 0.00 222231587.19 98518475.67 -2500.00 -2000.00 -1500.00 -1000.00 -500.00 0.00 500.00 1000.00 Millions Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
- 9. Landcover in East Kalimantan in 2011
- 10. Land cover in East Kalimantan under Scenario 1
- 11. Land cover in East Kalimantan under Scenario 2
- 12. Land cover in East Kalimantan under Scenario 3
- 13. Indicative value of ecosystem services Lost under each scenario 25.73 20.01 6.27 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 SCENARIO 1 SCENARIO 2 SCENARIO 3 USD Billions Source: Constanza et al 2014
- 14. Conclusions Scenario 3 most optimal for GHG reduction in OP to meet the Green Economy target PES loss also lowest However, Scenario 3 results in 1.6 M ha (50%) of allocated plantation area being taken out of development Degraded land is all under commercial concessions and thus unavailable to offset the loss of the plantation area Scenario 3 has the additionality of 100M tons of CO2 eq, thus the cut off threshold of 35 tons of CO2 /ha could be adjusted upwards to 45-50 tons of CO2 /ha This would enable OP to be in line with the GE target and keep the loss of the plantation area to below 1 M ha
- 15. Commercial land availability in East Kalimantan