NZDUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 21.12 - 28.12: Ranging Bearish With Symmetrical Triangle Pattern Broken

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Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.19 19:27

Forex Weekly Outlook December 22-26 (based on forexcrunch article)

GDP data from Canada and the US, US Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Unemployment claims, Haruhiko Kuroda’s speech are the major topics in Forex calendar. heck out these events on our weekly outlook.

Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen switched the phrase “considerable time” with the word “patience” in referral to rate hikes, at the FOMC press conference. The move was made to calm markets awaiting sharp policy shifts. Three Fed officials registered their dissent expressing discomfort with the Fed’s message. The Jobless claims came out better than expected with a drop to 289K, reaffirming US labor market’s strength. Philly Fed Manufacturing index came below expectations reaching 24.5 following the steep rise in November, still maintaining a positive score. New orders plunged from 35.7 to 15.7 and employment down from 22.4 to 7.2 points. Will the US economy continue to strengthen in 2015?

1. Canadian GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. Canada’s economy expanded 0.4% in October after higher oil, gas and mining extraction, as well as manufacturing boosted growth. October’s reading was preceded by a 0.1% contraction in August. Since Canada is a major oil exporter, the Bank of Canada estimates that the slide in oil prices will reduce Canadian economic growth by 1/3 percentage points, somewhere between 2% and 2.5% in 2015. Poloz is also worried by household imbalances risking financial stability, leaving the door open for additional guidance in the future. Markets expect Canadian GDP to rise 0.1% in November.
2. US Durable Goods Orders: Tuesday, 13:30. U.S. durable goods orders picked up in October beating expectations for a 0.4% fall. New orders rose by 0.4%, reaching $243.8 billion. Meanwhile, demand for manufactured goods, excluding transportation dropped 0.9% to $167.6 billion in October, after a 0.1% rise in the prior month. Analysts believe the decline suggests that business capital spending is weakening in Q4.The Fed expects GDP to slow to 2.5% in the fourth quarter. Long lasting product orders are expected to surge by 3%. While core orders are predicted to 3edge up 1.1%.
3. US GDP: Tuesday, 13:30. On The second estimate of real gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2014 showed an annual rate increase of 3.9%, weaker than the 4.6% gain posted in the second quarter. However, this forecast was upwardly revised from the advance estimate of 3.5% released in October. Personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed income investment increased more than expected, but export growth was slower than previously thought. The final GDP release for the third quarter is expected to reach 4.3%.
4. New Home Sales: Tuesday, 15:00. Sales of new U.S. homes rose modestly in October, following a pickup in activity in the Midwest. New home sales increased 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000. Economists expected a higher figure of 471,000. Sales of existing homes rose 1.5% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.26 million, adding another positive sign that the housing market is recovering. Analysts exdpect new home sales to reach 461,000 in November.
5. US Unemployment Claims: Wednesday, 13:30. Fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, indicating increasing confidence among employers. The weekly unemployment claims dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 289,000, the lowest level since late October. The four-week average dropped 750 to 298,750. In the first 11 months of this year, employers have added 2.65 million jobs, posting the best hiring since 1999. The number of new claims is expected to reach 291,000 this week.
6. Haruhiko Kuroda speaks: Thursday, 3:45. BOE Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Tokyo. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stated the bank will meet its 2% inflation target and continue to increasing base money, or cash and deposits at the bank, at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen ($674 billion). Kuroda said Japan’s economy continues to recover moderately after the tax hike effect subsides.

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newdigital, 2014.12.20 15:43

NZD/USD forecast for the week of December 22, 2014, Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD pair went back and forth during the course of the week, but ultimately finished fairly flat. With that being the case, we feel that the market will continue to bang around in this general vicinity and with this week being Christmas, we don’t really anticipate much in the way of large moves. However, we recognize that any rally in this market should be a selling opportunity and should continue to be so. We think that the market will ultimately go down to the 0.75 handle, which is the next large round number.

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Press review

newdigital, 2014.12.23 06:19

2014-12-22 21:45 GMT (or 23:45 MQ MT5 time) | [NZD - Trade Balance]

• past data is -911M
• forecast data is -550M
• actual data is -213M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or actual data) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month. Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers

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New Zealand November Trade Deficit NZ$213 Million

New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$213 million in November, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - representing 5.3 percent of exports.

The headline figure beat forecasts for a shortfall of 575 million following the NZ$908 million deficit in October.

Exports dipped 9.5 percent on year to NZ$4.02 billion - missing forecasts for NZ$4.03 billion, which would have been roughly unchanged from the previous month.

Dairy exports drove the fall, down 27 percent, with the quantity down 3.1 percent. The fall in dairy reflects the record high levels exported, mainly to China, in November 2013. A 20 percent rise in meat exports partially offset the fall, led by a price-driven rise in frozen beef.

"The fall in export values reflects a return from the high values late last year, led by China," international statistics manager Jason Attewell said. "The trend for exports to China is 42 percent lower than the series peak in December 2013, and is now at similar levels to 2012."

Imports fell an annual 1.3 percent to NZ$4.24 billion versus expectations for NZ$4.58 billion and down from NZ$4.94 billion a month earlier.

Capital goods (aircraft and helicopters) led the fall.

Year to date, New Zealand has a trade deficit of NZ$453 million - topping expectations for a deficit of NZ$774 million following the NZ$107 million annual deficit in the previous month.

This is the smallest November deficit since 2010, the bureau said. Record high exports late last year resulted in the first trade surplus for a November month (NZ$153 million) since 1991.

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Something Interesting in Financial Video December 2014

newdigital, 2014.12.25 04:58

Strategy Video: A Systemic Change in Market Conditions for 2015 (based on dailyfx article)

• Record highs for US equities and a slump in volatility developed under precarious circumstances
• Important changes in the financial system were already starting to take place in 2H 2014
• In the New Year, look for volatility to increase, risk aversion to take and trading approaches to change

Record highs in markets founded on record exposure to leverage and exceptionally low rates of return make for an ill-fated future. While benchmarks like the S&P 500 have chugged along consistently for nearly six years following the Great Financial Crisis, the foundation for this performance never fully set. The higher we reach, the more obvious the instability of the situation becomes. Market participants were already showing greater deference for these concerns in the second half of 2014, but the convergence of all the elements and damaging catalysts will more dramatically and permanently turn the current. This will result in more systemic volatility, greater correlations, rising volume, a focus on 'risk aversion' and a change in traders' approach to the market. We discuss the trading landscape of the New Year in today's Strategy Video.