NCAAF teams
Gene Wojciechowski, Senior Writer 9y

Playoff contenders are wound tightly

College Football, Florida State Seminoles, Alabama Crimson Tide, Baylor Bears, TCU Horned Frogs, Ohio State Buckeyes, Oregon Ducks, Mississippi State Bulldogs, UCLA Bruins

PREGAME SPEECH

There's a reason why the coaches of the College Football Playoff contenders are wound tighter than a fire hose these days.

Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher would rather grow arm-hair curtains than face Florida and Georgia Tech in back-to-back weeks.

Alabama's Nick Saban gets Auburn in the Iron Bowl this week and, if the Tide win, gets Missouri or Georgia in the SEC championship game. Fun.

Baylor's Art Briles has to make the short trip to Arlington for a matchup against Texas Tech, and then play Kansas State in the regular-season finale.

TCU's Gary Patterson has to travel to Austin to play the suddenly dangerous Texas Longhorns, followed by a home game against not-so-dangerous Iowa State.

Ohio State's Urban Meyer meets desperate Michigan at the Horseshoe, and then plays either Wisconsin or Minnesota in the Big Ten championship game.

Oregon's Mark Helfrich takes his team to Corvallis for the Civil War (Arizona State can tell Helfrich all about the Beavers), and then faces UCLA, Arizona or ASU in the Pac-12 championship game.

Mississippi State's Dan Mullen has to survive the Egg Bowl in Oxford, and then hope for the best (an Alabama loss to Auburn, which would mean the Bulldogs would face either Mizzou or UGA in the SEC championship game).

And UCLA's Jim Mora, who runs Saban-Meyer-Fisher intense, has to beat Stanford at Pasadena, and then Oregon to have any chance at reaching the four-team playoff.

This is when roster depth matters. When avoiding injuries matters. When talent, coaching and luck matter.

This is the one-and-done part of the college football calendar. None of the eight contenders (and if you want to allow for every possible crazy scenario, maybe you stick Georgia in there) can afford a defeat. That's a given. But if you were to rate degree of difficulty for teams to run the table, I'd put them in this order (from most difficult to less difficult): Alabama, Oregon, FSU, UCLA, Ohio State, Baylor, TCU and Mississippi State (I rank the Bulldogs last on the assumption they have only one game remaining).

Sure, go ahead and disagree with the eye test ranking, but the point is this: If you reach the CFP, you'll have earned it.

By quality of opponents, Bama is my No. 1 pick. But I guarantee you that FSU's Fisher is sweating out the Seminoles' last two games.

Yes, Florida has been grotesque at varying points of the season. And yes, the game will be at FSU. But Fisher has to be terrified by the thought of the Gators somehow putting it all together for one game and giving lame-duck coach Will Muschamp a memorable parting gift (that's if you don't count the $6.3 million Florida is paying him to leave).

And then there's Georgia Tech, which has run Paul Johnson's triple-option attack well enough to win nine games and inch its way up the polls. FSU would have one week to prepare for an entirely different offense from Florida's (insert Florida offense joke here).

Facing the triple option is like being attacked by a pack of Chihuahuas. It doesn't look like much, but before you know it you've got teeth marks all over your legs.

The last time Fisher faced Johnson was in the 2012 ACC championship game. The Seminoles beat the unranked Yellow Jackets 21-15, and they did it by running the ball. This season's FSU team is ranked 107th in rushing yards.

FIRST QUARTER

In: Happy Thanksgiving ... Oklahoma freshman Samaje Perine and his FBS-record 427 rushing yards (the OU fans who waited out the 90-minute rain delay saw history) ... UCLA owning L.A. and USC ... FSU and Georgia Tech in the ACC championship game ... Arkansas and consecutive shutout wins against AP Top 25 opponents LSU and Ole Miss (break up the Hogs!) ... Louisville ... Northwestern (break up the Wildcats!) ... East Carolina wide receiver Justin Hardy (congrats on becoming the FBS career leader in receptions) ... Illinois quarterback Reilly O'Toole ... Wisconsin-Whitewater ... Harvard over Yale (again) ... Harvard undefeated season ... Missouri defensive end Markus Golden ... UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley (feeling better about coming back for 2014?) ... Baylor and Alabama at home (15 in row, and counting) ... Kansas State wide receiver Tyler Lockett (your old man is proud) ... Missouri on the road (10 in a row, and counting) ... Ohio State in the Big Ten championship game ... Indiana running back Tevin Coleman ... Georgia running back Nick Chubb ... Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez (this is the Wildcats' first nine-win season since 1998) ... Notre Dame losing streak (three and counting -- the first time that has happened since Brian Kelly's first season at ND in 2010) ... Minnesota (the Golden Gophers' comeback win not only gives them a chance to reach the Big Ten championship game, but it marked the first time since 1960 that Minnesota beat Nebraska) ... Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel (if anybody deserved a good day, it's Driskel) ... the SEC West (all seven teams in the division are bowl eligible) ... the Pac-12 South (five of six teams in the division are bowl eligible) ... ESPN Stats & Info (thank you for the numbers that matter) ... Ohio State freshman Jalin Marshall ... Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson's honesty after the Demon Deacons' 6-3 double overtime win against Virginia Tech: "We set offensive football back 100 years." (Wake is ranked 127th in FBS points for, Va Tech is 101st) ... Marshall at 11-0 ... Harvard Senior Last Lap (seen a lot of things in college football, but going to be hard to top that one for pure emotion) ... Virginia over Miami (bowl eligibility is a must for UVa coach Mike London, whose 5-6 Cavaliers face Virginia Tech in Blacksburg on Friday).

Out: Notre Dame ball security (Everett Golson has 20 turnovers -- 20! -- in the past eight games) ... Notre Dame defense (I swear I'm not picking on the Fighting Irish, but they've given up 30 or more points in six consecutive games -- a school record) ... Northwestern quarterback Trevor Siemian (get well, bud) ... Nebraska Blackshirts ... Kansas defense ... Wake Forest and Virginia Tech offense (0-0 going into overtime) ... Western Carolina coach Mark Speir (Dude, R-E-L-A-X) ... Tennessee and onside kicks ... SMU (still winless -- 0-10 -- with two games remaining) ... Iowa State (still winless in the Big 12 -- with West Virginia and TCU remaining).

SECOND QUARTER

It wouldn't be a college football week without some drama involving FSU quarterback Jameis Winston.

Well, for starters, he led the Seminoles to another close win, this time a last-second victory against Boston College. It was FSU's fifth win this season by six points or fewer, and the sixth victory in which it was tied or trailed in the second half. That's amazing.

Florida State has now won 27 in a row, though Seminoles fans are running out of nitroglycerin pills to relieve the stress.

OK, so that was Good Jameis.

Knucklehead Jameis made an appearance in the third quarter of the BC game, when he shoved ACC center judge Michael Webster out of the way so he could snap the ball. Winston didn't brush him aside. He didn't playfully worm his way past Webster. He shoved him.

Winston could have been penalized and/or ejected for the contact. Instead, Webster gave Winston a glare and kept his flag in his pocket. Fair enough -- it was a judgment call, and Webster judged it not to be worth a penalty. The ACC coordinator of officials, in a statement issued Sunday, agreed, saying the contact was "incidental and insignificant."

But what if another center judge had thought differently? There certainly is enough debate within the officiating community (did I just type those words?) to support the argument that Winston should have been penalized or ejected.

Winston and FSU lucked out that a flag wasn't thrown, or that he wasn't sent to the locker room. And I'd say the same thing had Oregon's Marcus Mariota, or Mississippi State's Dak Prescott ... or any player had done what Winston did.

It doesn't matter if it was done maliciously or not. All that matters is that it was done -- and that a penalty or ejection could have cost FSU the ballgame and its chance at consecutive national championships.

The margin of error in FSU's season is already football-lace thin. Why give anybody, including an official, the excuse to make it any thinner?

HALFTIME SPEECH

Only two running backs have won the Heisman Trophy in the past 14 years. Check that -- officially, only one: Mark Ingram in 2009 (Reggie Bush is persona non Heisman; his 2005 victory total is no longer recognized by the Heisman Trust after he returned the statuette for violating NCAA rules).

Quarterbacks have won 13 of the past 18 Heismans. They've won it so often that the trophy ought to be recast to include one of those velcro play-call wristbands on the forearm.

The Heisman is supposed to go to the "Outstanding College Football Player." But it might as well say: "Outstanding College Quarterback Who Can Spin The Bean And Run The Read-Option."

I'm as guilty as the next Heisman voter when it comes to being mesmerized by quarterbacks and their stats. Given the demands of the position, especially these days, I lean toward the QBs if it's a voting toss-up.

This was going to be another Year of the Quarterback. Remember the preseason list: Oregon's Mariota, FSU's Winston, UCLA's Hundley, Baylor's Bryce Petty, Auburn's Nick Marshall, Michigan State's Connor Cook, Mississippi State's Prescott, Marshall's Rakeem Cato, Oregon State's Sean Mannion, BYU's Taysom Hill. There was even some early August chatter about Alabama's Jake Coker becoming a possible Heisman candidate once he won the starting job.

Mariota is still the favorite to leave New York with the Heisman. And he'll remain the favorite unless he ralphs against Oregon State in the Civil War, or against whomever the Ducks face in the Pac-12 championship game. It also matters that his team is in the national title mix.

But just to make it interesting, Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon is lowering his pad level and making a late-season Heisman push.

Gordon's rushing numbers are obscene. In the past two weeks he has broken the FBS single-game rushing record and broken the 2,000-yard barrier (2,109, to be exact). Had he not been pulled from the Nov. 15 wipeout of Nebraska after three quarters, his numbers would be even more stunning (and he'd probably still have that single-game rushing record broken by OU's Perine).

Anyway, Gordon has checked almost all the necessary boxes required to be a serious Heisman candidate:

• He has his Heisman moment (is 408 yards vs. Nebraska any good?).

• He has put up numbers down the stretch (813 yards in the past three games -- or 2¾).

• He had his inexplicable crummy game early in the season (17 carries, 38 yards vs. FCS Western Illinois).

• Without him, his team wouldn't be playing for a place in the Big Ten championship game.

• He has one, possibly two medium-to-high-exposure games to make his Heisman statement (Saturday's home game against Minnesota, and, with a win over the Gophers, the Big Ten championship game against Ohio State).

• ESPN has done a Sport Science segment on him (sorta kidding -- but it was a cool analysis of what makes Gordon such an amazing runner).

This is a fluid Heisman race. Any voter who already has made up his mind needs to have his/her ballot privileges revoked immediately. There are too many quality candidates remaining and too many games left to be played.

THIRD QUARTER

And the Heisman Trophy goes to ... Oregon's Mariota.

The race is becoming deliciously close. Unlike last season, when Mariota was dealing with a knee injury in November, he's functioning at full power late in 2014 (compare his November rushing numbers: 71 yards in four games in 2013, 272 yards in three games in 2014). And is a 32-2 TD-INT ratio any good? Or that Mariota is only the sixth player in major college football history to pass for 9,000 yards and rush for 2,000 yards? Or that he just broke the Pac-12 record for total touchdowns?

Also in attendance for the presentation: Wisconsin's Gordon, Mississippi State's Prescott, FSU's Winston, Ohio State's J.T. Barrett, TCU's Trevone Boykin, Marshall's Cato, Missouri's Shane Ray.

In a parallel universe where only a defensive player could win: Mizzou's Ray.

FOURTH QUARTER

Top 10

1. Florida State

Take a look at the Seminoles logo. Is he in the middle of a war chant, or simply yelling, "What's a guy gotta do to get a blowout win these days?" When push comes to shove (sorry, I couldn't let that Winston/ref thing go), FSU remains precariously atop my weekly rankings. The Will Muschamp Farewell Tour makes its final appearance in Tallahassee this Saturday.

2. Alabama

By my count, Nick Saban is 4-1 this season against teams that like to run the kind of caffeinated offenses that have tormented his program in the past. Bama beat West Virginia, Texas A&M, Tennessee (the Josh Dobbs version) and Mississippi State, but lost to Ole Miss (the Laquon Treadwell version). There's a reason why Saban retooled his program during the offseason -- and Gus Malzahn's Auburn offense might be No. 1 or 1A on the list. It's going to be so loud at Bryant-Denny Stadium that Tuscaloosa officials might want to think about reinforcing the concrete.

3. Oregon

Has Mariota played his final game at Autzen Stadium? Hmmm. He said he was taking "mental pictures" of the Autzen scene during the Ducks' home win against Colorado, so I think that's a yes. If Mariota did come back for 2015, it would be the biggest shock since seeing John Clayton channel his inner Slayer. For the moment, Mariota and the Ducks have to avoid getting shocked in Saturday's Civil War at Corvallis. Oregon has won the past six against Oregon State.

4. Mississippi State

It was only about a month ago that Mississippi State was ranked No. 1 and Ole Miss was ranked No. 3. There was talk that both teams could be undefeated when they played in the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl at Oxford. The Magnolia State was the epicenter of college football. Yes, well, that was four losses ago -- one loss for the Bulldogs, three for Ole Mess, which is in a bit of a late-season free fall (the Rebels are 1-3 after a 7-0 start). Mississippi State might not be No. 1 anymore, but it could still squeeze into the four-team playoff if it beats Ole Miss on the road (and Auburn beats Bama). It could possibly get there even if it doesn't reach the SEC championship game and win in Atlanta.

5. Baylor

Beware of the trap game against Texas Tech at Jerry World. You can't blame the Bears for sneaking a peek at the Dec. 6 home game against Kansas State.

6. Ohio State

Not exactly the Buckeyes' finest performance against a 3-8 Indiana team that lost to Michigan by 24 points. Ohio State plays That Team Up North in Columbus this Saturday. A convincing victory is mandatory.

7. TCU

The Horned Frogs had a bye week and now face Bevo in Austin. Texas still has lots of flaws, but it has won three in a row and four of its past five. Be careful, TCU.

8. UCLA

The best two-loss team in the country might be playing better than some of the one-loss or no-loss teams. The Bruins own L.A., but they don't own this week's opponent, Stanford. UCLA has lost six consecutive games to Ivan Maisel's alma mater.

9. Michigan State

Here's what passes for drama these days when it comes to Sparty's upcoming game at underdog Penn State: Can MSU running back Jeremy Langford record his 16th consecutive 100-yard performance against a Big Ten opponent? The answer is yes.

10. Georgia

Georgia won its FCS playoff game against Charleston Southern and now returns to FBS competition. Florida State is rooting for the Bulldogs to wear down Georgia Tech -- or, at the very least, provide some game-plan tips. Meanwhile, UGA needs Missouri to lose to Arkansas this week. Otherwise, Mizzou wins the SEC East and advances to the conference championship game.

Waiting list: Arizona, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Arizona State, Georgia Tech.

POSTGAME LOBBYING

No. 1 Florida State vs. No. 4 Mississippi State

Just asking, but what is the official CFP policy regarding cowbells at a semifinal game? And if they are allowed, how will FSU die-hards turn it into a conspiracy theory? If this game is played at the Allstate Sugar Bowl, the Superdome is going to need seating surgery. No way demand will meet supply (New Orleans is less than 300 miles from Stark Vegas and less than 400 from Tally Town).

No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Oregon

The possibility of this game gives my goose bumps goose bumps. What's there not to love about this matchup? Different parts of the country. Different uniform philosophies. Different coaching philosophies. In the end it would come down to one thing: Can Saban and defensive coordinator Kirby Smart figure out a way to stop Mariota?

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