NFL Week 12 Picks: The Incredible Shrinking Seahawks

Riffs, rants, observations and dissenting opinions from the voices in my head: Here's a warped and dented take on this weekend's games, featuring extra Batman references and Ice Station Zebra parodies. 

Note: All times listed are Eastern, lines are via Odds Shark and game capsules are listed in the order you should read them.

Cardinals at Seahawks

Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

Line: Seahawks -7.5

One day, you're wondering who would win a battle between the Seahawks and the 1985 Bears, or a robot army, or the Justice League of America. A few months later, you are wondering if the Seahawks have what it takes to beat Drew Stanton. Life is funny.    

What we saw in February was no mirage. The 2013 Seahawks sized up one of the best offenses in NFL history in the Super Bowl, sawed off its top branches, chopped it down, ground its stump, filled its root base with topsoil, planted a garden where it once stood and built a cozy cabin out of its remains. The Super Bowl was no one-game fluke; it was a continuation of the near-historic level of excellence that began (give-or-take) in December 2012 and extended through the season opener this year. If you did not pencil the Seahawks in as likely repeat champions from the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl through the first week of September, you certainly had them locked in for 12 wins and some serious playoff damage.

The Seahawks could still technically win 12 games, but they are more likely to flat-out miss the postseason. Football Outsiders gives the Seahawks just a 43.5 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, well below the Cardinals (97.1 percent). The Seahawks now have just a 2.0 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl, weaker odds than…shudder…the Dolphins (2.1 percent).

The Seahawks have shrunk to mortal size little by little since February. Their free-agent losses, from Golden Tate to Red Bryant and Chris Clemons, were noteworthy but not crippling. The lack of a first-round pick seemed like no big deal for such a talented young roster. One by one, the injuries mounted: Zach Miller, Brandon Mebane, Max Unger. The Percy Harvin trade (and subsequent rumor-mongering) made all the headlines, but the real problem was quieter: Week by week, the Seahawks kept losing a little more of what made them THE SEAHAWKS. Without Mebane last Sunday, they could not stop Jamaal Charles. Without Unger in the fourth quarter, they could not run the ball. With young Pro Bowlers still sprinkled all over the roster, what's left is still a playoff-caliber team. But it's just a playoff-caliber team; nothing more.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are the worst 9-1 team ever, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. Don't send me angry tweets until you click the link and read the charts: The Cardinals are in some good company. The 2012 Falcons are right beside them, and they came within a few plays of the Super Bowl. But we're talking about a team with a backup quarterback who has eight career starts under center, whose leading rusher (Andre Ellington) averages 3.4 yards per carry and whose sack leader (Alex Okafor) has five. Calling them weak by the standards of a .900 winning percentage is an understatement.

The Cardinals have been consistent and resilient, getting some amazing next-man-up performances from the fringes of their bench, but we are past the "pesky little team" point of the season and must start evaluating them as a playoff contender. The Cardinals fail the stat test and the name recognition test, yet despite the analytic pessimism, Football Outsiders gives them a 10.7 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl—five times the Seahawks' chances. Every win not only improves the Cardinals' chances, but hurts the 49ers' and Seahawks' chances, stacking the NFC playoffs with opponents that have not looked immortal this calendar year.

Those playoff odds should change this week. A journeyman backup is facing the Seahawks secondary in Seattle. Injuries in the trenches and defections among the receivers aside, do we really have to question the results?

We do, which is a clear sign of just how far the mighty have fallen.

Prediction: Seahawks 22, Cardinals 20

Lions at Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Patriots -7.5

The Patriots have notched some convincing wins over challenging opponents this season, but most have been familiar foes: Peyton Manning, the Colts, the Jets in this is our Super Bowl mode, the pre-intimidated for your convenience Bengals. It's like Batman preparing for the umpteenth breakout at Arkham Asylum. Let's see, I need an antidote for Joker laughing gas, a bunch of coins to throw at Two-Face, something to slice through Bane's steroid tubes, shark repellent for when I am inevitably fed to sharks, and extra-special protection for when I meet Catwoman (scratch ointment, you creeper). This should take about 90 minutes.

The Patriots face an all-new rogue's gallery in the next two weeks. They have not met the Lions or Packers since 2010. They won both meetings four years ago, but Shaun Hill and Matt Flynn were the quarterbacks. Amazingly, Tom Brady has never faced Matthew Stafford or Aaron Rodgers.

Brady-Rodgers is next week's duel to end all duels. Brady versus the Lions defense is the matchup to watch this week. The Lions defense ranks first in the NFL in Football Outsiders' DVOA and has not given up more than 24 points all season. Brady's traditional weakness is a defensive front that can apply pressure without much blitz-and-stunt gingerbread, and the Lions defense is similar enough to the Dolphins and Chiefs defenses (though the Chiefs have many more wrinkles) to use their success as a blueprint.

The Patriots don't need a signature Tom Brady performance to win. With Darrelle Revis sounding focused and motivated this week (it was bound to happen sometime), they can shut down a Lions offense making its annual descent into Megatron-or-bust territory. Jonas Gray can swing into action like Robin if Batman is coping with a mini-slump; like the real Batman, Brady has a lot of Robins, and LeGarrette Blount just returned to do his Jason Todd routine.

Unlike their archrivals in Denver, the Patriots can shift gears and grind out a win. But it won't be easy, and the next two weeks will determine if they are not just ready for tougher challenges, but different challenges.

Prediction: Patriots 23, Lions 17

Dolphins at Broncos

Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Line: Broncos -7.5

Dolphins defensive tackle Jared Odrick made smart use of his mini-bye after the Thursday night win against the Bills: He spent a few days in the high-altitude town of Randolph, Utah. What did he do? "Shoot coyote, eat good food, went up into the mountains, hiked a little bit," he told the Miami Herald.

What better way to prepare for Peyton Manning in Denver than a Rocky Mountain coyote hunt? The coyote is not speedy, like the roadrunner. It is not rascally, like the rabbit. It's wily, like Peyton Manning. As winter approaches, the coyote also gets territorial, and so do the Broncos: They must protect their home-field advantage now if they hope to preserve it in January. The wise hunter gets used to the thin air and prepares for crafty quarry.

Manning must get used to a depleted supporting cast. Emmanuel Sanders (concussion), Julius Thomas (ankle) and Montee Ball (groin) are in various probabilities of availability for Sunday, none of them very high. Backups like Ronnie Hillman and Virgil Green are just returning from injuries, meaning Manning may rely on old standby Jacob Tamme, newcomer rookie Kapri Bibbs and any other weapons he can find in the Acme catalog.

The Dolphins are a better version of the Rams team that upset the Broncos last week: stout front seven, diverse offensive weapons, shaky line, an almost pathological unwillingness to throw more than 15 yards down the field. Picking the Dolphins to keep things close on Sunday and build a late-season run out of Jets and Vikings games is perfectly reasonable. But picking them to out-fox the coyote (and John Fox) in its home territory would be a little daffy.

Prediction: Broncos 26, Dolphins 20

Cowboys at Giants

Sunday, 8:30 p.m.

Line: Cowboys -3

An anonymous NFL insider with ties to the Giants provided Game Previews with the following insights about the team as it tries to snap a five-game losing streak and make some tough decisions about rebuilding. He insisted, however, that his identity remain completely secret:

On Tom Coughlin: "He should be fired."

Eli Manning: "I roll my eyes when I hear his name. He's not a leader. He should be cut."

Perry Fewell: "I may not be an expert on defense like my twin brother, but I know a bad coach when I see one. Fired."

Rookie Andre Williams: "Reminds me a lot of Ron Dayne, a great collegiate runner who was unable to win a starting job from m … I mean, unable to win a starting job. They need an all-purpose runner who can provide 2,390 scrimmage yards per year, in addition to being a Renaissance Man who is about so much more than football. But not Rashad Jennings. Someone balder."

Antrel Rolle: "Spends a lot of time talking to the media, holding teammates accountable, and self-promoting. That sort of behavior stopped being charming precisely at the end of the 2006 season."

The Cowboys play their first of three games in twelve days on Sunday, traveling from New York to Dallas (Eagles on Thanksgiving) to Chicago in a marathon that will go a long way toward determining their playoff fortunes. When we asked our completely anonymous and 100 percent unidentifiable insider, who may or may not have first-hand knowledge of the running back position, whether DeMarco Murray could handle 75-80 touches in just 12 games, he responded: "Hey, you know anyone who works in television? One of the major networks, preferably? I'm looking for a real gig, no more guest-judging for cooking competitions like a C-lister. Let me give you my resume. I am not sure Matt Lauer's contact information is up to date, but still …"

Prediction: Giants 27, Cowboys 20

Rams at Chargers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m.

Line: Chargers -5

We've reached the point in the Rams' season where all hope is lost, yet the team goes on a late-season run where we all marvel at their young talent. The Rams won three straight games after starting 3-6-1 in 2012, and we marveled at Robert Quinn, Chris Givens and Janoris Jenkins. They went 4-3 last season after starting 3-6, and we marveled at Zac Stacy, Tavon Austin and Alec Ogletree. Last week's Broncos upset came with the help of Tre Mason and Aaron Donald, while Greg Robinson faced DeMarcus Ware all afternoon without getting completely clobbered.

You would think that a team that goes on a late run with the help of young talent each year would…you know…turn the corner after a few years and become a true contender. But everyone knows Jeff Fisher teams require four years of .500 gestation and a franchise move before making the playoffs (see: 1995-1998 Oilers-Titans). So everything should fall into place by 2016.

The Chargers are coming off their second straight bye week. That's usually a hack joke, but if you watched the Raiders game, you know the Chargers scored an early touchdown after a Raiders opening-play fumble and went right back to Netflix. Their most productive play after that first touchdown was drawing the Raiders offside, but the Raiders were content to run off tackle for no gain and throw incomplete passes all day, so it did not matter.

The win kept the Chargers in the playoff picture, but it is hard to argue that they are back to late-September form. They cannot stand around and watch the Rams get in their own way on Sunday, because "Rams in their own way season" has officially ended.

Prediction: Chargers 24, Rams 21

Browns at Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Falcons -3

Josh Gordon returns from suspension this week. With Falcons cornerback Robert Alford out with a wrist injury, coach Mike Smith hinted (via ESPN) that Desmond Trufant would shadow Gordon all over the field on Sunday. That's a smart plan since Trufant is the Falcons' only decent cornerback anyway, Alford included.

The Browns released Ben Tate, who began losing his job to Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell at the start of training camp. (Tate is now in Minnesota trying not to look like an afterthought.) The Falcons lost pesky committee back and special teamer Antone Smith to a broken leg against the Panthers. The Browns will probably be without Karlos Dansby, tight end Jordan Cameron is still suffering concussion symptoms and rookie cornerback Justin Gilbert has not earned a regular defensive role. The Falcons offensive line and defense look like a mash-up of the last two East-West Shrine Game rosters, and Browns lineups are almost as obscure.

So…why don't the Browns and Falcons just play 3-on-3 in the parking lot: Brian Hoyer, Gordon and Joe Haden versus Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Trufant? That would be more fun than an actual Browns-Falcons game. I can even draw up some killer play ideas:

Both these teams have legitimate playoff chances, so they will be taking this game very seriously. Since it's the battle of a 6-4 last-place team against a 4-6 first-place team, it may be hard for the rest of us to do the same.

Prediction: Browns 26, Falcons 24

Titans at Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Eagles -12.5

As concerned as the Eagles must be about Mark Sanchez's return to form after a one-game reprieve from being Mark Sanchez, plus the fear that their secondary is not deep or consistent enough to beat a team that can successfully throw downfield, the team should be most terrified of the Shaun Alexanderization of LeSean McCoy.

Alexander, you may recall, was one of the best running backs in the NFL from 2003 to 2005. A great offensive line and excellent Mike Holmgren scheme helped him, but Alexander did not rush for 5,011 yards and 57 touchdowns in three seasons simply because Walter Jones flattened the entire defense with one pancake block week after week. He was great, and he was a joy to watch.

Alexander signed a massive $62 million contract after the 2005 season and promptly became useless. Whether or not one had to do with the other, he suddenly acquired two terrible habits: bouncing inside runs to the outside and going to the ground at the first sign of contact. The Seahawks spent two full seasons enduring 22-carry, 76-yard games that dwindled to 14-carry, 35-yard games, their hoped rekindling whenever Alexander mixed in a 100-yarder every two months or so.

McCoy has not signed any historic contracts recently, but he has bounced an awful lot of runs to the outside since the Eagles started juggling interior linemen in September, and the Packers knocked him to the turf with some grazing blows last Sunday. The McCoy of 2011 and 2013 could lead the Eagles to the playoffs with any quarterback this side of Matt Barkley. The Alexander impersonator we have seen much of this season could sink a team that needs consistency and ball control to win games.

But then, maybe ball control is a bad thing against the Titans. The Steelers only let them have the ball for 20 minutes and 11 seconds, but they responded with their third-highest point total of the year. Give the Titans enough rope and they will tangle themselves, but starting on Thanksgiving, the Eagles will absolutely need their running game to start picking up slack.

Prediction: Eagles 27, Titans 16

Packers at Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Packers -10

Aaron Rodgers' statistics on passes labeled as "deep" (15-plus yards in the air) on the play-by-play: 27-of-53, 956 yards, 10 touchdowns, no interceptions, 50.9 percent complete, 18.0 yards per attempt and six pass interference penalties netting 200 additional yards. The NFL averages on deep passes are a 40.5 percent completion rate and 11.5 yards per attempt (from the Football Outsiders internal database).

Aaron Rodgers on third down with 10 or more yards to go: 16-of-24, 380 yards, four touchdowns, eight first downs, no interceptions, 66.7 percent complete, 50 percent conversion rate. He has been sacked six times on 3rd-and-long, but only once since Week 3.

Rodgers has these midseason gamma-ray streaks every year: He threw 11 touchdowns and just 18 incomplete passes in a three-game 2011 streak, threw 15 touchdowns and one interception in 2012 and had completed 75 percent of his passes and thrown five touchdowns in two games before getting injured last year. During these streaks, he is the best quarterback in the NFL. Outside of these streaks (but when healthy), he is still the best quarterback in the NFL, but it's still more fun to talk about the other guys, who were the best in the NFL last decade.

The Adrian Peterson suspension was a thinly disguised blessing for the Vikings, who were in danger of becoming one of those basketball teams that tie logic in knots while trying to build their system around one overpaid veteran. This is the cleanest slate the Vikings have had since Denny Green took over in 1992, and there is plenty of young talent to build around. This is Mike Zimmer's team now, and he can now be free to really put his stamp on it.

Prediction: Packers 31, Vikings 24

Jaguars at Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Colts -15

Ahmad Bradshaw fractured an ankle against the Patriots, meaning it's now Trent Richardson's moment in the spotlight. 

Wait, wasn't the beginning of this season his time? What about last year's playoffs? Since the Colts traded for Richardson soon after Bradshaw got hurt last season, wasn't his arrival in Indianapolis really the time? Hasn't he needed to come up big for about 14 months? Is "The Richardson's Time Zodiac" part of the Chinese Zodiac, or the Mayan Long Count? Or is it one of those vague temporal constructs like "The Age of Aquarius" or "Time to Save Money on Your Car Insurance?"

The Colts should market an alarm clock that flashes "Trent Richardson Time" instead of the hours and minutes. Granted, it would need a pretty wide display. But they would not have to worry about the snooze function working.

Prediction: Colts 27, Jaguars 17

Bengals at Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Texans -1

The Texans beat the Bengals in the first rounds of the 2011 and 2012 playoffs. Since then, the Texans bottomed out, changed coaches, quarterbacks and philosophies and have completely rebooted their identity, while the Bengals have remained a Marvin Lewis-Andy Dalton team customized to lose in the first round of the playoffs. The Texans still have some work to do before they can consistently beat good opponents, but while they may lose on Sunday, they are laying the groundwork for beating the Bengals in the 2015 playoffs.

Prediction: Bengals 23, Texans 17

Buccaneers at Bears

Sunday, 1 p.m.

Line: Bears -6

Click here for an in-depth look at the doomed bromance between Lovie Smith and the Browns.

Daktronics, the company which operates the Soldier Field stadium clocks, spent the beginning of this week investigating the causes of last Sunday's malfunction. "They're going to replay the actions in the control room when the score changed and the clocks were running to try to identify what the issue was, whether it was a software issue, a hardware issue or combination of both," said stadium spokesman Luca Serra (via The Pioneer Press' Brian Murphy). At least no one has to replay the actions of the previous two Bears games: that would cause broken clocks, malfunctioning calculators and increased antidepressant prescriptions.

After retracing every step Matt Forte took last week, Daktronics determined that a little mouse that didn't believe in Santa Claus broke some of the sprockets, but repaired them in the final seconds with the help of a catchy show tune.

Redskins at 49ers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m.

Line: 49ers -10

This week's Robert Griffin/Jay Gruden drama can be interpreted as Exhibit QQ of Redskins dysfunction or as a conflict resolution breakthrough. After months of mouthing the platitudes both sides expected the counselor or mediator to hear (I don't mind listen to her father argue his flat-earther opinions over dinner every Sunday at all…his constant texting to the new female intern does not make me jealous in any way) both sides are finally expressing some truth:

Robert Griffin: It's all on me. Everything bad that ever happens is on me. Well, wait, we miss field goals, backs and receivers fumble and opposing quarterbacks have a 104.4 rating against us. There are other guys, right? I'm allowed to be a little miffed too, aren't I?

Jay Gruden: We completely support Robert. We are all behind Robert. Well, wait, Robert has the footwork of a wounded gazelle and makes worse decisions in the pocket than the teenagers in a slasher movie. Am I allowed to say that?

Yes, guys, you can say these things. Preferably to each other in closed-door meetings, where mature professionals hash things out and move forward from festering disagreements. If you need further conflict resolution, the national media should probably not be your sounding board, even though we happily volunteer our services. There are better arbiters out there. For example, Jim Harbaugh may be available in a few weeks.

Prediction: 49ers 27, Redskins 14

Ravens at Saints

Monday, 8:30 p.m.

Line: Saints -3

The Saints are having the season we all thought the Patriots were going to have: the one where the fraying at the edges of the roster starts to show, the coaches suddenly stop having all the answers and the lost zip on the Hall of Fame quarterback's fastball becomes noticeable. The Saints appeared to be putting together a Patriots-style surge in Weeks 8 and 9 but have since receded. They will probably still make the playoffs—it's hard to imagine the Falcons beating anyone outside the NFC South—but this was the season to ride a divisional sweep to 13 wins and home-field advantage. The Patriots would have done it.

The Ravens are having the same season they always have. They are 6-4 and ranked third in the NFL in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, but you probably have not thought about them at all since the NFL's Great Societal Issues Debate passed over their doorway.

The AFC North is 8-1-1 in meetings with the NFC South. Throw in a pair of Jaguars/Titans games per team, and the AFC North is going to enjoy serious record inflation by season's end. The effect of the easy schedules can be seen in all of their records except for the Steelers' record, because they cannot beat terrible teams. Under the circumstances, banking on making the playoffs with 10 wins is risky, so the Ravens cannot afford to take one of their patented sloppy road losses here, especially after the Bengals proved how beatable the Saints can be at home.

I am not ready to start picking the Ravens on the road, but it's a measure of how far the Saints have fallen that we are even entertaining the possibility.

Prediction: Saints 23, Ravens 20

Jets vs. Bills in Detroit

Monday, 7 p.m. (or First Thaw of Spring)

Line: Bills -2.5

As you are probably aware, upstate New York is coping with a blizzard (like a Sharknado but with snow instead of sharks) that is early and extreme even by that region's standards. The NFL moved the game to prevent the Bills from being buried in the snow with the Jets.

Buried in the snow with the Jets. Can you imagine?

Game Previews proudly presents: Ice Station Pegula

SAMMY WATKINS: (looking down at the floor of icebound Bills headquarters). Oh no, EJ Manuel has been torn to shreds! What happened?

FRED JACKSON: The Jets Parasite must have gotten loose. Be careful, rookie. It can disguise itself as a typical NFL player, but it is completely evil. Trust no one.

KYLE ORTON: Hi, guys! I was just all by myself in a location where no one can vouch for my whereabouts, doing nothing suspicious whatsoever.

FRED JACKSON: Oh, really? Prove to me that you are the real Kyle Orton. Say something that only he knows.

KYLE ORTON: Umm…Tim Tebow wears Green Lantern underwear?

FRED JACKSON: Nice try. But the Jets Parasite would know that, too. HIT HIM WITH A SHOVEL, SAMMY!

KYLE ORTON: Wait! How do you know that's really Sammy? In fact, how do I know that you are Fred? You might just be using Sammy to do your dirty work and cover your tracks.

FRED JACKSON: You are right. Our only hope is to stand in a circle and stare each other down until someone makes a huge, idiotic mistake and proves he's the Jets.

SAMMY WATKINS: Don't you see: That's what the Jets Parasite wants! It can't beat us if we stand united. But it wants us tired and suspicious. The Jets are playing mind games with us, and you are letting them do it!

FRED JACKSON: You are right, rookie. Let's stay together and not leave each other's sight until we can hatch a plan.

DOUG MARRONE: Hey guys, I have some gameplans I want you to …

SAMMY, FRED AND KYLE: ARRRRRGGGGGGGHHH! (Much stabbing, shooting and shoveling).

SAMMY WATKINS: You think he was the Jets Parasite?

KYLE ORTON: I don't know, but he wasn't going to last long anyway.

FRED JACKSON: Maybe there is no parasite. Maybe the mediocrity is within us all. Maybe that's why we're trapped in a blizzard together with no hope. Heck, I'll bet no one even knows we're still here.

KYLE ORTON: You are right, Fred. C'mon Sammy, you are too young to die of despair: let's trudge through the snow in search of help. Fred, you monitor the radio to see if the NFL will send help.

FRED JACKSON (twirling his mustache): Yes, that's right, wander out into the snow to freeze to death. And I, the Jets Parasite, will take over this ice station, grow in power and continue my vile scheme to take over the …

(Massive explosion)

(Meanwhile, at a weapons console in Foxboro).

TOM BRADY: So you have drones and tactical warheads now, coach?

BILL BELICHICK: Yeah … now.

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.