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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDIND Received: 2014-04-19 02:19 UTC
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591 FXUS63 KIND 190220 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 A VERY WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER WESTERN OHIO AND KENTUCKY WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. IN THE LONG TERM A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/... ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 0200Z UPDATE...ONLY NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW MINOR MODIFICATIONS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS THIS EVENING. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. SATELLITE AROUND 19Z SHOWED SCATTERED CU ACROSS OUR AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE WEST. SLIGHTLY DRIER WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A FEW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING ACROSS OUR EAST HALF. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN MOST CASES WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET TEMPERATURES AS THERE WILL BE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WEAK COLD ADVECTION OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE SUNNY AND MILD. MODELS INDICATE 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND +6 CELSIUS AND OVERALL TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM SUPPORT A MOS BLEND ON HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES TO THE EAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPREAD INTO OUR REGION BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AND MID CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD IN SUNDAY NIGHT. EXCEPT FOR THE NAM...MOST MODELS DON'T BRING ANY PRECIPITATION INTO OUR REGION PRIOR TO 12Z MONDAY AND SOME ENSEMBLES BRING LITTLE PRIOR TO MONDAY EVENING. WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WEST BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING AND ALL AREAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS INDICATES CAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE A MOS BLEND SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE ALLBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT RAIN COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR RAIN WILL RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE TRENDING COOLER FOR MID WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY AROUND 60 ACROSS SOME AREAS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH EVEN COOLER READINGS POSSIBLE IF COOLER SOLUTIONS WIN OUT. OTHERWISE NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 190300Z KIND TAF UPDATE/... ISSUED AT 1019 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. NO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 191200Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 8 KTS THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JH NEAR TERM...SMF/JH SHORT TERM...JH LONG TERM...CS AVIATION...JAS VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND FOLLOW US ON TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS