Why UPA's freebies aren't working: Fact is they never did

Why UPA's freebies aren't working: Fact is they never did

A study shows that freebies and electoral giveaways are marginal to the voter’s intentions. This is why UPA’s social spending is not working this time. In 2009, it was growth that worked, not freebies.

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Why UPA's freebies aren't working: Fact is they never did

The idea that giveaways are important to tipping the scales in an election dies hard among politicians. The Congress party believes that its NREGA job guarantee scheme led to victory in 2009 – not high growth. The DMK believes that its free TV scheme brought it to victory in 2006 – not the arrogance of the AIADMK. The Samajwadi Party thinks its free laptop scheme helped it win Uttar Pradesh in 2012 – not voter fatigue with Mayawati.

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The UPA persists with this belief even now. This is why it has legislated a hugely expensive Food Security Bill and the growth-stopping Land Acquisition Bill. Besides, it has promised even more freebies in its election manifesto – right to health, right to homesteads - if it is re-elected. It came close to legislating the reservations in government promotions bill before other concerns took over.

This, despite growing evidence that growth and economic performance are more correlated to electoral outcomes than just freebies. The NDA lost in 2004 not due to its India Shining campaign, but due to the fact that India was not quite shining for most of the years it was in power. Non-economic factors like alliances and special circumstances (a communal polarisation, a Kargil war) do matter,  but ultimately it is the economy, stupid, as this paper by Arvind Virmani shows. Surjit Bhalla also makes similar points on why the BJP is surging right now in opinion polls. Freebies are peripheral to the voter’s scheme of things - though no one is likely to decline it.

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Sonia Gandhi launching the Food Security scheme in Delhi. PTI

Pradeep Chhibber and Rahul Verma of the Lokniti-CSDS in Delhi would like to disabuse all parties of the idea that free gifts bring the voter to the booth, and that the voter will actually vote for the party offering the gifts.

In an article in The Indian Express today (9 April), Chhibber and Verma quote from a controlled experiment in the 2011 in Tamil Nadu – where the freebie culture has had long, historical roots going back to MGR, who started the revolutionary free mid-day meal scheme – to prove that freebies don’t really matter to electoral outcomes.

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Their discovery: even when voters knew about freebies in Tamil Nadu, it did not make them more likely to go out and vote. And even if they did know which party was offering what freebie, it did not impact their actual voting intentions much.

Commonsense tells us that once a freebie is given, voting for the party giving you the freebie is like a thank you note from the voter. But when the thank you cannot be delivered in a secret ballot system, the need for a quid pro quo relationship between freebie giver and voter vanishes. Whether you vote for the party or not, you still get the freebies.

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Given the huge impact unlimited freebies tend to have on government finances, clearly we are up against this reality: freebie money is actually wasted money. If the money spent only damages the fiscal balance, and the political party giving it does not really benefit much electorally, what can be more wasteful than this?

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Looked at from the voter’s side, nobody will actually refuse a free laptop or cheaper rice if it is offered without obvious strings. So are we truly up the fiscal creek without a paddle?

Not quite. Chhibber and Verma conducted a survey in 2014 where voters were asked whether they supported freebies. Another group was given information on how much the freebie cost and asked the same question.

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The second group apparently was less inclined to support freebies than the first.

This is a hopeful sign, but one cannot expect politicians to change their spots anytime soon. Reason: When they can never be sure how voters will vote, since all voting is by secret ballot, they may be more inclined to buy insurance by offering freebies.

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That it may not bring in the vote may be another matter, but then, politicians don’t pay for the insurance either. It is the voter – especially the taxpaying part of the voter base – who pays.

The freebie culture is unlikely to end anytime soon. The Congress hasn’t learn the lesson. Despite offering giveaways, its rival, Narendra Modi seems to be coasting along just fine. But the BJP isn’t beyond it either. Even though Modi isn’t promising freebies, his party voted for the food and land bills.

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The sad truth: no politicians wants to approach the voter with empty hands.

R Jagannathan is the Editor-in-Chief of Firstpost. see more

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